For Wicked To Win Best Picture, It Has To Do Something Only 6 Movies Have In Oscars History
Wicked's theatrical and critical success has far surpassed initial expectations for the film, and with the recent announcement of the 2025 Oscars nominations, the smash hit is looking even better. The movie follows Elphaba Thropp as she attends Shiz University and becomes increasingly aware of a problem brewing in Oz. Wicked's cast is led by Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, both of whom received Oscar nominations for their performances. Wicked's massive box office success and cultural impact show just how impressive the movie-musical truly is, and this popularity is unlikely to change anytime soon.
The musical adaptation was well cast and directed, and Wicked's ending has left fans excited about Wicked: For Good being released later this year. While Wicked only won one award at the Golden Globes, it received 10 nominations for the Oscars and is considered a frontrunner for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design. Additionally, Wicked is also nominated for Best Picture. The Oscars Best Picture nomination is a huge opportunity for Wicked when only 10 musicals have won this title in the Academy's history, but it faces a big challenge in getting there.
Only Six Movies Have Won Best Picture Without A Best Director Nomination
Wicked's Chances Seem Lower Without The Crucial Best Director Nomination
Throughout the Academy Awards' 96-year history, only six movies have been able to win Best Picture without receiving a Best Director nomination, and Wicked stands out when Jon M. Chu is not being considered for Best Director. While this does not rule it out entirely, it does mean that Wicked's win is less likely given the history of the award. Because Best Picture incorporates so many aspects of other categories, it does make sense that a Best Director nomination as well as several other nominations generally put a film in a better position to win overall.
The most recent Best Picture winner to not have a Best Director nomination is 2021's CODA, which also won Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay. Before CODA, Green Book and Argo both won Best Picture in 2019 and 2013, respectively, without a Best Director nomination, making three in the past 12 years. Additionally, Wings won at the very first Oscars without a Best Director nomination, as did 1932's Grand Hotel and 1989's Driving Miss Daisy. These films prove that while it may be more difficult, it is still possible for Wicked to take home Best Picture.
Can Wicked Win Best Picture After Missing Out On Best Director?
It Is Possible But Not Super Likely
Wicked still has a chance of winning Best Picture without the Best Director nomination, but given the Academy's track record, the odds of it are not high. Three movies in the past 12 years winning Best Picture without the Best Director nomination does indicate that having the director nomination is slightly less crucial than it had been before the 2010s. Additionally, the Best Picture and Best Director wins do not always line up, so there is certainly not a one-to-one correlation between the same movie winning both categories.
It seems entirely possible that Wicked could receive a lot of second and third-place votes on the preferential ballot, meaning it could be a strong contender.
Beyond this, Wicked has also garnered a lot of attention for its performances, which does elevate its Best Picture chances. Wicked has received five SAG Awards nominations to highlight its acting talent, and the 10 overall Oscars nominations point to how generally well-received the movie has been. It seems entirely possible that Wicked could receive a lot of second and third-place votes on the preferential ballot, meaning it could be a strong contender. However, given how tough the Best Picture competition is this year, Wicked's chances of winning are still a long shot.
